Decadal prediction skill for spring and summer surface air-temperature over India and its association with SST patterns in CFSv2 and CNRM coupled models

In this study, we have assessed the skill of decadal prediction boreal spring (March–May) and summer (June–September) Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over India its relation with Sea (SST) in National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) coupled model. The CFSv2 is compared CNRM (Centre de Recherches Météorologiques) model, which best among selected CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5) models long-lead forecasts (6–9 years) global SSTs (with high skill). It found that both show significant predicting 4-year mean SAT central southern peninsular at 1–5 year leads spring. During summer, skills northwest southeast are seen CFSv2, whereas displayed north years lead. first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode variability indicates a country-wide warming/cooling pattern observations summer. analysis reveals (EOF-1) highly related to SST variations Indo-Pacific North Atlantic regions. strong convergence low-level winds equatorial Indian Ocean maritime continent accompanied by warm anomalies drive northerly dry favour Further, changes shortwave radiation also contributed India. general, relationship different parts tropical sub-tropical regions underestimated able represent atmospheric circulation Indo-Western Pacific patterns reasonably well lead some discrepancy. However, showed relatively low capturing between SSTs. This might limit